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April 3, 2013

Who will be the next Fed chair? Here are Wonkblog’s odds.

Ben Bernanke has another ten months in his term as Federal Reserve chairman, but that hasn’t stopped the economic punditocracy from beginning an obsession over who will take charge of monetary policy for the world’s largest economy come February 1, 2014. We at Wonkblog plead fully guilty to this minor obsession.

However, we are also on record here as favoring accountability in punditry. It is not enough to just list the people who might get some consideration for the job (we’re looking at you,The Economist), or to issue vague proclamations about who might be a favorite and who might be a dark horse (OK, we’re guilty of that one). If you’re going to spout off and make predictions, attach some numbers! So that’s what we’re going to do.

This is my analysis of various candidates for the Fed chairmanship, and a best guess at the probability they will get the job. I worked to make the odds add up to 100 percent, which was harder than it sounds. (I initially assigned odds such that the total probability added up to nearly 150 percent, which means those rough instincts assigned too-high odds across the board). Herewith, the candidates, the odds, and notes on their strengths and weaknesses.”

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Read full Washington Post article here

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