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February 12, 2013

A physical vs forward commodity market disconnect

“A strange thing is happening in commodity markets.

As we already commented on Twitter, what the physical supply and demand situation is telling us is getting increasingly disconnected from what the forward and futures markets are saying.

The curve, in short, is feeling mispriced.

And not in the, “oh the market has corrected for too much supply but the forward curve has not caught up” way, but rather in the “physical market in many commodities is still looking weak, if not weaker, yet the curve is going the opposite” way. Weird.”

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Read full blog post in the Financial Times here

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