“The next 18 months are critical to the industry’s future.

If federal regulators do not get the bulk of Dodd-Frank’s provisions in place by the end of 2014, Congress is likely to take another, tougher whack at reform. It will make the 2010 law look tame by comparison.

For starters, lawmakers will tackle too big to fail either through asset caps or straight-out breakups. Not far behind will be moves to resurrect the wall between commercial and investment banking.

And the industry won’t be the only target. Congress will realize the tangle of federal financial agencies prevents consensus and compromise. The next reform law will finally consolidate oversight of financial companies into a single agency.”

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